Stochastic Price Divergences

Stochastics can be used to confirm price trend. In the example below of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ), the Stochastic indicator spent most of its time in the overbought area. When Stochastics get stuck in the overbought area, like at the very right of the chart, this is a sign of a strong bullish run. Signals to sellshort would be ignored; however, before the signal not to short was given, many losses unfortunately would have accrued from failed shorting attempts on the left half of the chart.


A powerful and more common occurence is Stochastic divergences. The chart below of Gold futures illustrates Stochastic divergences and confirmations:


Low #1 to Low #2

The Stochastic Slow confirmed the upward movement of gold futures prices by making a higher low.

High #1 to High #2

Gold futures rallied to make a higher high; however, the Stochastic Slow indicator failed to make a higher high, instead it made a lower high. This divergence coupled with a trendline break in the price of gold would be a strong warning to futures traders that the recent rally had probably ended and any long futures positions should be exited or at least scaled back.

Low #3 to Low #4

Gold prices continued its downward tumble, making a lower low at Low #4. On the other hand, the Stochastic Slow indicator was signaling a higher low. This bullish divergence would have warned traders to exit their shortsells, the price of gold had a strong potential of bottoming.